Daca Israelul ataca Libanul

In sfarsit cineva care chiar spune lucrurilor pe nume: Israelul asteapta doar ocazia sa bombardeze Libanul. Si multi se cam chinuie sa-i ofere ocazia asta.

"Israel will lie in wait for an opportunity to strike in Lebanon, or at training camps and missile storage sites in Syria earmarked for Hezbollah. The operation will hurt Hezbollah's rocket capabilities, thus denying Iran a 'second-strike' capability, in case Israel decides to hit its nuclear facilities.

Kurtzer doubts the Obama administration's ability to dissuade Israel or Hezbollah from attacking. Washington has no negotiation channel with Hezbollah, a terror organization and partner to Lebanon's government, and has nothing effective to convey through such a channel. Israel could perhaps be tempted with military equipment or "some other strategic enhancement as an incentive for not going to war," Kurtzer writes.

But pressure on Israel, including a threat to initiate or support a Security Council resolution against it, would encounter firm political resistance and be futile. "


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